An unintended consequence of self-driving cars?
Date:2019-04-21 10:40:27 Posted by:mrpower View:380The benefits of self-driving cars are likely to prompt vehicle owners to drive more, and that extra distance could partially or completely offset the potential energy-saving benefits that automation may provide, according to a University of Michigan study.
“Much higher energy efficiency targets are required for self-driving cars”
It considers the expectation that self-driving cars will yield significant improvements in safety, traffic flow and energy efficiency, while allowing vehicle occupants to make productive use of travel time.
“Previous studies have shown that greater fuel efficiency induces some people to travel extra miles, and those added miles can partially offset fuel savings,” said the university. “In addition, the ability to use in-vehicle time productively in a self-driving car – work, sleep, watch a movie or read a book – will likely induce even more travel.”
Forecasts were made using models based on economic theory and US travel survey data. Both fuel cost and time cost were accounted for. Their approach adapts standard microeconomic modelling and statistical techniques to account for the value of time, according to the university, noting that the ability to pursue other activities in an autonomous vehicle is expected to lower ‘perceived travel time cost’ considerably.
One prediction is, that the induced travel resulting from a 38% reduction in perceived travel time cost, would completely eliminate the fuel savings associated with self-driving cars.
The work is published in Applied Energy as ‘Forecasting the impact of connected and automated vehicles on energy use: A microeconomic study of induced travel and energy rebound‘.
“The core message of the paper is that the induced travel of self-driving cars presents a stiff challenge to policy goals for reductions in energy use,” said team member Samuel Stolper.
“Thus, much higher energy efficiency targets are required for self-driving cars,” according to fellow researcher Ming Xu (pictured).
A further conclusion is that local and global air pollution could suffer net increases, and that wealthier households are more likely than others to drive extra miles in autonomous vehicles and therefore stand to experience greater welfare gains.
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